Another poll gives Livingstone the lead in London

This from LBC, a London talk radio station, giving credence to last week’s YouGov poll:

An LBC 97.3 poll of Londoners voting intentions suggests Ken Livingstone is now favourite to win the mayoral election

The Labour candidate has 51% of the vote to Boris Johnson’ 49% after second preference votes are allocated.

Mr Livingstone continues to get more support in inner London while Boris Johnson is more popular in the suburbs. But despite the results, when asked, most Londoners still expect Mr Johnson to win.

Boris struggles to win support among Londoners aged 18-44 while Ken struggles to gain the support of older people.

David Cameron’s spending cuts seem to have a greater impact on putting people off voting for Boris than opinions of Ed Miliband do on Ken’s chances.

Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick is the most popular second preference choice for Londoners with 38 percent of the vote.

A few initial thoughts:

1. Momentum is with Ken Livingstone. If sustained, the poll lead is a complete reversal from only months ago, when Boris Johnson, the Tory incumbent, led by eight points. This is most likely attributable to the energetic campaign around the rising cost of transport in London and the growing public sentiment that Johnson is neglecting the interests of ordinary Londoners.

2. The self-deafeating economic line being articulated by Labour nationally might damage the good work being done by Ken and his team in London, by minimising the identifiable policy differences between Labour and the Government. The polls suggest that the general direction in London is superior to that of Labour nationally. Whilst Ed Miliband and Ed Balls have nothing to show from the latest polls by their lurch rightwards, in London the relentless campaign message that Labour is ‘on your side’ against cuts to living standards seems to be bearing fruit. This should be taken on board by Ed Miliband and his supporters.

3.  Labour’s campaign team are right to urge against complacency – these are only two polls and we are months from the election in May. Johnson’s campaign and its numerous media backers have already responded with a campaign of negativity towards Labour, but a renewed charm offensive, playing to Johnson’s strengths, would probably bring benefits. Right-wing pundits have also urged Johnson to neutralise the ‘out of touch’ line of attack with a programme of superficial policy announcements, but if Johnson’s article in the Sun attacking unemployed young people is anything to go by, he isn’t taking that on board just yet.

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