From Key Trends in Globalisation.
The outcome of the vote in the British general election corresponds to the trends analysed on this blog before it – as the figures below confirm.
That it was possible to foresee these trends beforehand demonstrates that the results of the election appear ‘surprising’ or ‘confused’ only if a wrong analysis of the situation had been made – although such mistakes were made by many commentators, which led them to take it for granted for two years that the Tories would stroll to victory.
The real trends of the 2010 vote also have important features, in particular regarding the Tories and the Liberal Democrats, differing from the analysis still being presented after the election in sections of the media – these commentators are repeating the mistakes in analysis they made before the election. This article therefore looks at the real trends in the voting, why it was possible to foresee them, and what is their dynamic.
The election was the expression of long term trends
This blog noted before the election that the reason many commentators expressed ‘surprise’ about the trends during the British general election campaign was that these were often presented as though they were a consequence of unanticipated short term events in the election such as the introduction of TV debates between the party leaders. Such a view was wrong. The only serious uncertainty at the election was the rather lottery like way in which the undemocratic features of the British voting system would allocate seats in parliament. The trends of support for the parties in the election were the logical continuation of long term social electoral trends.